Co-funded by the European Union (LIFE14 CCA/GR/000928)

Main results of the ADAPT2CLIMA project on the climate change impacts on agriculture

The overall aim of the LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA project is to increase knowledge on the estimated climate change impacts to the agricultural sectors of Sicily, Cyprus and Crete. The methodology for the assessment of impacts is based on the deployment of a set of climate, hydrological and crop simulation models.

The assessment was based on the average climatic projections under two future climate change scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. RCP 8.5 is a baseline scenario with no explicit climate policy, representing the highest RCP scenario in terms of GHG emissions. RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario and thus assumes the imposition of emissions mitigation policies.

The selected future period is the period 2031-2060 which may serve for long-term adaptation planning for decision makers. In addition, extreme climatic conditions were also examined, considering intense cold/warm years and dry/wet years, so as to enable farmers to acknowledge the expected impacts of extreme events on crops also in the near future.

Following you may gain insight on the main results of the climate change assessment for agriculture:

Climate change projections

 

 

Intermediate impacts on water availability and drought

Intermediate impacts on crop yield

Total climate change impacts

For more detailed information on the project results, one may visit the ADAPT2CLIMA tool where all results are presented through interactive visualization maps, graphs and tables, or, read the respective reports of the project Actions C.3 and C.4.

Climate change projections

Climatic indicators have been calculated using data from a regional climate model (ΗadGEM2-ES/RCA4) at a horizontal resolution of about 12km. Present day simulations cover the period 1971-2000 and are used as reference for comparison against future projections for the near future period 2031-2060 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.

Following, representative results of the changes in climatic indicators relevant to agriculture for Crete, Cyprus and Sicily are presented. For more information, you may visit the respective section of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool or have a look at the relevant project report.

Cyprus

In Cyprus, an increase in the seasonal average temperature is expected for all seasons under RCP4.5, which will be up to 2°C for winter, 3°C for summer and 2.4°C for the transient seasons. Under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, greater increases are projected throughout the year, i.e. up to 2.3°C for winter, 3.8°C for summer and 3°C for the transient seasons. Increases in seasonal average temperatures will be accompanied by increases in average winter minimum and summer maximum temperatures.

Mean summer maximum temperature increases of about 2.5°C in the coastal regions, 2.8°C in the medium elevation areas (200-700m) and inland regions and of about 3.1°C in high elevation areas (>700m) under the RCP4.5 scenario, are expected. Concerning RCP8.5, higher increases of about 3.2°C in coastal areas and 3.7°C in all other regions, are found. As far as future changes in mean winter minimum temperature are concerned, under the RCP4.5, increases are found of about 2.0°C in western and southern-southeastern areas and 1.6°C in mountainous regions. Under RCP8.5 scenario, the increases are 2.5°C in coastal southern-southeastern areas, 2.3°C in inland, medium elevation and western coastal areas and approximately 2.0°C in high elevation areas.

Concerning the average annual total precipitation, highest decreases of about 10% in southern and southeastern regions of the island under RCP4.5 scenario are projected, while under RCP8.5, decreases of about 10% in western and high elevation areas and 15% in all other regions, are expected.

Regarding the precipitation seasonal changes, small increases in winter precipitation of up to 10% in the western coastal regions under RCP8.5 are found, while the spring precipitation decreases approximately 20% throughout the island. During summer, under both scenarios, the entire island shows decreases, with the maximum of 60% located in the western coastal areas under RCP4.5 and 50% in the southern-southeastern coastal regions under RCP8.5.

   
   
   

 

Figure 1: Current climatic conditions (left column) and differences in the future (right column) in: mean summer maximum temperature (top row), minimum winter temperature (middle row) and annual total precipitation (bottom row) under RCP8.5.

Crete

In Crete, an increase in seasonal average temperature is expected for all seasons under RCP4.5, which will be up to 2°C for autumn and winter, 2.2°C for spring and 3.2°C for summer. Under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, greater increases for all seasons are found. These reach 2.0°C for winter, 3.7°C for summer and 2.7°C for spring and autumn.

Increases in seasonal average temperatures will be accompanied by increases in average winter minimum temperatures and summer maximum temperatures. More specifically, summer maximum temperature, is expected to increase up to 2.6 °C and 3.2°C in the northern parts of the island, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the southern parts and high elevation areas (>800m), the increases will reach 3.2°C and 3.6°C, under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Mean winter minimum temperatures under both emission scenarios, is expected to increase in the entire island by 1.5-2.0°C.

Regarding the average annual total precipitation, decreases in the eastern and central part of the island of up to 18% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are simulated, respectively, while for the rest of the island insignificant decreases are predicted. Furthermore, under RCP8.5, increases in the northwestern coastal part of the island are expected of up to 10%.

During winter under RCP4.5, small changes (-5 up to 5%) are simulated for the greater part of the island, with exceptions in northern-eastern part showing increases of up to 10% and southern-eastern parts with decreases of up to 12%. Under RCP8.5, the spatial pattern remains partly the same, with small decreases in winter precipitation in southern-eastern and increases in northern-western parts of the island. Regarding spring precipitation decreases ranging between 10 and 30% under RCP4.5, are expected, while under RCP8.5, moderate changes are found almost in the entire island with some exceptions in central and eastern parts. Finally, under RCP4.5 emission scenario, decreases reaching up to 60% in the northern part of the island, are simulated. Under RCP8.5 scenario, decreases between 10 and 40% are expected.

   
   
   

 

Figure 2: Current climatic conditions (left column) and differences in the future (right column) in: mean summer maximum temperature (top row), minimum winter temperature (middle row) and annual total precipitation (bottom row) under RCP8.5.

Sicily

According to RCP4.5 scenario, an increase in seasonal average temperature is expected for all seasons, which will reach up to 2°C for autumn and winter, 2.4°C for spring and 3.2°C for summer. Under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, greater increases are projected throughout the year, i.e. up to 2.0°C for winter, 3.2°C for spring and 3.8°C for summer 2.6°C for the autumn period. Regarding the average annual total precipitation changes under both scenarios, highest decreases in the annual precipitation are found in the northwestern Sicily, while small changes of up to 5% are found in the rest of the island.

Increases in the seasonal average temperature will be accompanied with increases in average winter minimum temperatures and summer maximum temperatures. More specifically, summer maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 3.2°C in central areas under RCP4.5, while under RCP8.5 this increase will reach 3.6°C. As far as the minimum winter temperatures is concerned, increases up to 1.4 in the central areas and 1.8°C in the coastal areas under RCP4.5, are expected. Under RCP8.5 these increases will be 1.5 and 1.9°C, respectively.

Regarding the seasonal results, in winter under RCP4.5, in the majority of the central and eastern areas of the island decreases up to 5% are simulated, whereas in the rest of the areas no significant changes are found. Under RCP8.5, decreases are found in the range of 3 to 10% in the majority of the areas. During spring under RCP4.5, decreases in the range of about 10 to 25% are expected for the whole island. Under RCP8.5, the decreases vary between 5 and 20%. Finally, during summer under RCP4.5, the model simulates an increase up to 10% in the central and southern areas of the island whereas a decrease up to 40% is simulated for the rest of the areas. Under RCP8.5, with the exception of the eastern coastal areas, the changes are in the range of 0 to -20%. 

   
   
   

 

Figure 3: Current climatic conditions (left column) and differences in the future (right column) in: mean summer maximum temperature (top row), minimum winter temperature (middle row) and annual total precipitation (bottom row) under RCP8.5.

Intermediate impacts on water availability and drought

In the framework of the ADAPT2CLIMA project, hydrological models have been developed to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in selected areas (pilot) in Cyprus, Crete and Sicily. In particular, groundwater availability for the future period of 2031-2060 has been evaluated based on the most dry year (with lowest annual precipitation) as predicted by Regional Climate Models. Two climatic scenarios have been assessed; the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The assessment of water resources availability has been based on the currently applied agricultural practices (e.g. irrigation and fertilization practices).

The impacts of climate change on drought events have been assessed in Crete, Cyprus and Sicily, mainly near water reservoirs used for irrigation purposes. The drought assessment is based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a drought index estimated based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data. SPEI could be correlated to reservoir water storages (http://spei.csic.es/home.html). Negative values of SPEI indicate drought events. In Table 1, a classification of conditions based on SPEI is shown. .

Table 1 SPEI classes for wet and dry periods

SPEI

Class

SPEI ≥ 2

Extreme wet

1.5 ≤ SPEI < 2

Severe wet

1 ≤ SPEI < 1.5

Moderate wet

-1 < SPEI < 1

Normal

-1.5 < SPEI ≤ -1

Moderate dry

-2 < SPEI ≤ -1.5

Severe dry

SPEI ≤ -2

Extreme dry

 

Following representative results of the assessment of future hydrological conditions related to agriculture are shown. For more information on the future hydrological conditions at all pilot areas, you may visit the respective section of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool or have a look at the relevant project report.

Crete

Future water availability

 

Figure 1 Pilot areas in Crete

 

 

Messara Plain

Messara Plain (Figure 1) is an important agricultural area of Greece suffering of limited groundwater availability and nitrate groundwater pollution. Based on both climatic scenarios, the groundwater flow simulations have resulted in an average groundwater depletion of 6-7m and 12m in groundwater levels at the end of the wet and dry season respectively of the most dry year in the future period 2031-2060.

Chania Plain

The aquifer in Chania Plain (Figure 1) is characterized as satisfactory in terms of groundwater quality and quantity however groundwater management practice should be adopted, due to the intense agricultural activities in the area. Groundwater flow simulations have shown an additional decrease of the groundwater table of approximately 4m in both climatic scenarios. In Ayia area, an important agricultural area in Chania Plain, higher drawdown in groundwater levels (~8m) is expected.

 

Drought Index evolution

In the island of Crete, SPEI was estimated near Ayia springs and Faneromeni reservoir and a SPEI negative trend in both areas is observed (Figures 2 and 3). In Faneromeni dam, SPEI results for the period 2031-2060 do not indicate further deterioration of surface water availability in the future however this is not the case for the period 2070-2098. In Ayia area, SPEI evolution indicates that the period 2031-2060 will be stressful as far as water availability.

(a)   RCP 4.5

(b)              RCP 8.5

Figure 2 SPEI values in Faneromeni Dam area

(a)   RCP 4.5

(b)              RCP 8.5

Figure 3 SPEI values in Ayia area

 

Cyprus

 

Future water availability

 

Figure 2: Pilot areas in Cyprus

 

Kiti pilot area (Larnaka)

In Kiti pilot area (Figure 4), over-exploitation has led to groundwater quantity and quality degradation during the past decades. The performed groundwater flow simulations have shown an additional decrease of groundwater level close to 1m during the most dry year in the future period 2031-2060. Seawater intrusion problem is also critical indicating the need for additional mitigation measures.

 

Pegeia pilot area (Paphos)

Pegeia pilot area (Figure 4) is known as a traditional banana and citrus crop field area. Pegeia aquifer has been subjected to intensive over-pumping and seawater intrusion problems. Based on the groundwater flow analysis for both climatic scenarios assessed, no additional stress is imposed in groundwater availability, however, the local salinization phenomena urge the need for better water management.

 

Xylofagou pilot area (Larnaka)

Xylofagou pilot area (Figure 4) suffers from extensive over-pumping over the last 45 years, leading also to serious seawater intrusion issues. According to the simulations results, the mean groundwater level in Xypofagou pilot area seems to be maintained. However, in some vulnerable areas, an additional decrease of groundwater table close to 0.8m may observed, indicating the need for additional mitigation measures.

 

Acheleia pilot area (Paphos)

The status of Acheleia pilot aquifer (Figure 4) is characterized as satisfied in terms of water quality and quantity. Based on the future climatic scenarios, the mean groundwater level in Acheleia aquifer will not significantly vary. However, over-pumping is already put stress in groundwater at specific areas raising awareness for mitigation measures.

 

Drought Index evolution

SPEI evolution is estimated in representative locations near Asprokremos, Kiti and Kouris dams that mainly cover agricultural water needs in Cyprus. During dry years the amount of water stored in these dams has been stressfully decreased. In Figures 5-7, the evolution of SPEI in these areas for the period 1972-2098 is estimated. A downward trend is observed in all areas subject to the two climate scenarios, indicating more frequent and intense drought periods.

(a)    RCP 4.5

(b)               RCP 8.5

Figure 5 SPEI values in Asprokremos Dam area

(a)    RCP 4.5

(b)               RCP 8.5

Figure 6 SPEI values in Kiti Dam area

(a)    RCP 4.5

(b)               RCP 8.5

Figure 7 SPEI values in Kouris Dam area

Sicily

 

Future water availability

Figure 8 Pilot areas in Sicily

Trapani pilot area

In Trapani pilot area (Figure 8), the uncontrolled groundwater exploitation the last years has resulted in a drastic depletion of groundwater levels and in severe seawater intrusion issues. The groundwater flow results have shown an additional depletion of mean groundwater table of approximately 1-2m for both climatic scenarios, indicating the need for additional mitigation measures to preserve groundwater resources in the area.

Enna pilot area

Enna pilot area (Figure 8) is located in the Dittaino Valley at Provinces of Enna and Catania. The increased water demand for domestic, agricultural and industrial uses has resulted in over-exploitation of the aquifer. The groundwater flow results for the future most dry year under both climatic scenarios have shown an additional decrease of approximately 0.5m in groundwater level.

Drought Index evolution

SPEI evolution estimated at Poma reservoir, for the period of 1972-2098 showed a downward trend indicating more frequent and intense drought for both climatic scenarios (Figure 9). Therefore, surface water availability in the area is expected to be affected.

(a)    RCP 4.5

(b)    RCP 8.5

Figure 9 SPEI values in Poma Dam area

Intermediate impacts on crop yield

For each crop, both annual and perennial, the relevant yield performances were previously evaluated by considering different sowing dates (for wheat, barley, tomato and potato) or growing cycle duration (for grapevine and olive tree) in order to detect which is the best strategy for the present period (baseline). To assess the impact of future climate change, the relevant results under future climate conditions were compared against baseline. The best adaptation strategy was thus identified according to the sowing time or variety able to ensure the best yield in the future.

The main results are presented as average for the three islands. Yield variations are reported as changes between present and future crop performances, considering sowing date or crop precocity level traditionally used in each island.

It is noted that the results do not take into account the actual cultivated area for each crop but are simulated for the whole island. The cultivated area is taken into account in the total impact assessment, see more here.

For more information on the results of the assessment of climate change impacts on the examined crops for the three islands, you may visit the respective section of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool or have a look at the relevant project report.

 

Cyprus

Considering the regional average, except for potato, all crops are expected to be sensitive to future climate conditions, with higher magnitude under RCP8.5 scenarios. Tomato is the crop resulted at major risk (-25% as regional average of both RCP), with a clear reduction through all the region, with the exception of some centre-west areas, under both RCP4.5 and 8.5 (Fig. 1). However, tomato is not extensively cultivated in field but it production is in greenhouses which are under protected growth conditions. As regional average, wheat and barley showed yield reduction by – 2% and of --5% for wheat, -6% and -12% for barley under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. In particular, for barley, but similarities are observed for wheat, at regional level, in the northern coastal areas and in the centre west, no variation or little increase in yield production are projected under both RCP (Fig. 2). Regarding the perennial crops, as regional average, olive yield reduction is expected to be around -6% under both scenarios, instead, grape seems to be more sensitive under RCP8.5, with a yield reduction of -11%. Only potato is expected to benefit from future climate conditions, showing an average regional increases in yield up to +12% with respect to the present under RCP8.5. Under extreme climatic scenarios, hot years are expected to mostly affect summer crops (tomato, olive tree and grapevine) while winter and autumn crops were not affected (wheat and barley) or were even positively influenced (potato). Almost the same trend was observed in dry years for all crops, except for wheat and barley which exhibited higher yield decreases (-45 and -51%) and tomato seems to be not effected. Also in this case potato is positively affected (+20%), due to the warmer conditions enabling the crop to ultimate its growing season before the dryness in summer time.

 

Figure 1: Tomato yield variation compared to the present period under RCP4.5 (on the left) and under RCP8.5 (on the right) in Cyprus.

 

Figure 2: Barley yield variation compared to the present period under RCP4.5 (on the left) and RCP8.5 (on the right) in Cyprus.

Crete

Among the analysed islands, Crete seems to be less negatively affected by future climate conditions. Indeed, as regional average, relevant yield reductions were observed only for tomato, -9% under both RCPs, and grapevine, –11% and –3% under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Considering the regional spatial analysis, for tomato similar trend is observed under both RCPs (Fig. 3), with yield reduction in most areas of the island, but with some areas in the south-west , centre-north, and centre-east with no yield variation or characterized by a yield increase (up to +10% in centre-east) compared to the present period. However, tomato is not extensively cultivated but it production is in greenhouses which are under protected growth conditions. On regional average, potato, barley, wheat and olive are positively affected by future climate, especially under RCP8.5 with an average regional yield increased +21% for potato, +20% for barley, +19% for wheat, and +8% for olive. For grape, instead a negative total regional average yield production is expected (-11% RCP4.5 and -3% RCP8.5), but focusing on regional spatial distribution, heterogeneity is observed in yield variation compared to the present (Fig. 4). Indeed, especially under RCP 8.5, the western areas and the centre-northern and centre-south, is forecast a yield increase (> +25%). Furthermore, some east areas characterized by yield reduction under RCP4.5, are expected to be positively affected under RCP8.5. Considering regional average crop behaviour, similar trend is projected under extreme climatic scenarios (cold years), but with lower yield reductions for tomato and grapes with respect to the others crops. Under hot years, all crops are projected to be at risk, especially potato (-42%). Grapes is most effected by dry conditions (-85%), instead under wet conditions is the crop which is expected to have higher yield increase (+100%), as well as the other crops showed yield increase, from +17% for olive to +89% for barley. This is mainly due to the combination of shorter phenological phases because of higher temperatures coupled by water availability during the most important phenological phases determining the final production (i.e. flowering and grain/fruit filling).

 

Figure 3: Tomato yield variation compared to the present period under RCP4.5 (on the left) and RCP8.5 (on the right) in Crete.

 

Figure 4: Grape yield variation compared to the present period under RCP4.5 (on the left) and RCP8.5 (on the right) in Crete.

Sicily

As for the other islands, in Sicily too, tomato is the crop mostly affected by future climate with an average regional yield reduction compared to the present of -28% and -26% under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This trend is expected to characterized all areas of the region as showed in Figure 5. However, tomato is not extensively cultivated but it production is in greenhouses which are under protected growth conditions. The other annual crops showed a total regional average yield increase in the future climate conditions, with +13% and +32% for potato, +7% and +19% for barley, +4% and + 16% for wheat, under RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. On regional average, among the perennial crops, grape is projected to be negative affected by future conditions, especially under RCP8.5 with -13% compared to the present. Instead, considering regional spatial analysis, under RCP 4.5 a great part of the island is affected by a yield reduction, compensate by a high yield increase in the north-east of the island. On the contrary, under RCP8.5, the most part of the region is characterized by no yield variation or by yield increased in few areas with over +20% of increase but, yield reduction is projected in the centre-south of Sicily from -10% to -20% (Figure 6). Olive yield is expected to increase by +8% under RCP8.5 as regional average. Considering the extreme events, except for tomato, all crops are projected to benefit of cold and wet years, in particular cereals and potato which showed the highest increases in yield. Instead, under hot and dry conditions, yield increases are expected only for potato (+22% for dry and +18% for hot conditions), while tomato and grapes are resulted to be negatively affected by these extreme climatic conditions, depicting the highest yield decrease with respect to the other crops (-62% and 68% for tomato, -57% and -62% for grape, under dry and hot conditions, respectively).

 

Figure 5: Tomato yield variation compared to the present period under RCP4.5 (on the left) and RCP8.5 (on the right) in Sicily.

 

Figure 6: Grape yield variation compared to the present period under RCP4.5 (on the left) and RCP8.5 (on the right) in Sicily.

Total climate change impacts on agriculture

The methodology for the assessment of total climate change impacts on agriculture was based on the relevant terminology presented within the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (2014). According to the latter, the total impacts are a result of the interaction of climate change (hazard) and the vulnerability of the exposed system and population.

In particular for the sector of agriculture, it is considered that climate change affects crop yield and water availability (intermediate impacts), while the exposure and vulnerability of the agricultural sector is considered to have an additional effect to the total impacts. Exposure refers to the cultivated areas of the examined crops and to the concentration of agricultural population, while vulnerability refers to the agricultural population and to the crops.

The assessment was based on the average climatic projections under two future climate change scenarios; the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.

For assessing total climate change impacts, the composite indicator approach is selected while data on each of the abovementioned indicators are normalized with the use of a 5-class scale corresponding to the level of total impacts which ranges from Low to High. The total impact of climate change on agriculture is presented at municipal level for all islands.

Following, representative results of the total impact assessment for the three islands are presented for those crops and climate change scenarios for which the highest impacts are expected. More results on the impact assessment for each of the examined crops may be found here.

Sicily

The results showed that the western and southern part of Sicily is expected to be more sensitive to climate change, especially with respect to grapes and olives (medium to high level impact).

Grapes

The expected total climate change impacts for grapes according to RCP4.5 range from “Low” to “High” level intensity in most of Sicily’s municipalities. “Medium to high” overall impacts are expected for a large part of municipalities especially at the western part of the island, while there are also a few municipalities expecting “High” overall impacts. With respect to RCP8.5, the expected overall impact is generally lower while the number of municipalities which is not expected to face negative impacts is considerably higher.

Expected overall impacts due to climate change on Sicily agriculture: Grapes - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right).

Olives

The expected impacts for olives according to RCP4.5 are mostly classified as “Medium” to “High” intensity for the western and southern part of Sicily, in contrast to the north-eastern part where no negative impacts are expected. With respect to RCP 8.5, the expected overall negative impacts are milder, mostly classified as of “Medium” intensity and are affecting fewer municipalities.

Expected overall impacts due to climate change on Sicily agriculture: Barley - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right).

Tomatoes

The expected total climate change impacts for tomatoes in Sicily according to RCP4.5 range from “Low to medium” to “High” for all municipalities where the crop is cultivated (Picture11a). The expected situation with respect to RCP8.5 is quite worse, as almost all municipalities are expected to face “High” overall impacts (Picture 11b). However, it is noted that these results refer to open field cultivation of tomatoes, as those cultivated in greenhouses are more protected from climate change impacts.

Expected overall impacts due to climate change on Sicily agriculture: tomatoes - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right).

Crete

The crops in Crete that are expected to be most affected by the total climate change impacts are grapes and olives (in some areas of the island).

Grapes

According to RCP4.5, the total climate change impacts on grapes are expected to be unfavorable in almost all municipalities in Crete. The negative effects are mainly expected to range from “Low” to “Medium to High”. According to RCP8.5, fewer areas are expected to be negatively affected and the total negative impacts will be slightly milder.

Expected total climate change impact on agriculture in Crete: Grapes - RCP4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right)

Olives

According to RCP4.5, the overall negative impacts of climate change on olives are expected to be from “Medium” to “High” and mainly affect the southern part of the island, while the majority of municipalities are not expected to be negatively affected. According to RCP8.5, lower total climate change impacts are expected on the island compared to RCP4.5. The highest impacts for this crop are classified as "Medium" and are located in the southern and eastern part of the island.

Expected total climate change impacts on agriculture in Crete: Olive - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right)

Tomatoes

According to RCP4.5, generally “Low to Medium” total climate change impacts are expected for tomato cultivation in Crete. Almost the same picture is observed in the case of RCP8.5.

Expected total climate change impacts on agriculture in Crete: Tomato - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right)

Cyprus

The crops in Cyprus that are expected to be most affected by the total climate change impacts are olives and grapes, but also barley to a lesser extent.

 

Olives

According to RCP4.5, the total negative climate change impacts on olive production are expected to be “Low” to “High”, while no negative impacts are expected at higher altitudes. More specifically, in the southern part they are expected to be mainly from “Low” to “Medium to High” level impacts, while “Medium to High” impacts are expected in Nicosia and Larnaca districts. According to RCP8.5, lower total climate change impacts are expected in fewer areas of the island than in the RCP4.5 scenario. The greatest impacts on this crop “Medium to High” and are expected in some municipalities of the Nicosia and Larnaca districts.

Expected total climate change impacts on agriculture in Cyprus: Olive - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right)

Grapes

According to RCP4.5, the total climate change impacts on grape cultivation in Cyprus are expected to be “Low” to “Medium to High”, while there are also municipalities where no adverse effects are expected. The areas where the most severe impacts are expected are in the central and western part of Cyprus. As for RCP8.5, the total climate change impacts are expected to be higher in several municipalities than in the RCP4.5 scenario. The areas where the highest impacts are expected (“Medium to High”) are in the districts of Larnaca, Limassol and Paphos.

Expected total climate change impacts on Cyprus agriculture: Gpares – RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right).

Barley

According to RCP4.5, the total climate change impacts on barley production in Cyprus are expected to be “Low” to “Medium to High”. The most severe impacts are expected in the northern and eastern part of Cyprus and in particular to some municipalities of the districts of Nicosia, Larnaca and Famagusta, while in the central part of Cyprus no negative impacts are expected. The picture is similar in the case of RCP8.5.

Expected total climate change impacts on Cyprus agriculture: Barley - RCP 4.5 (left) and RCP 8.5 (right)